Truism #1: The surge is working, has worked, and is a shining success. You only need to look to Bill Kristol's nomination of Petraeus or Odierno as GOP VP candidates to see that this meme is working its way into the mainstream. (Actually, Kristol's suggestion got even weirder than that, he also suggested Clarence Thomas, whom he referred as " the most impressive conservative in American public life", but that's a story for another day).
Eugene Robinson tells a different story about the surge in the WaPo in an op ed.
When the Bush administration celebrates a 60 percent reduction in overall violence in Iraq, it's easy to forget that this is compared with June 2007, when the sectarian civil war was raging and bombings with scores of victims were a regular occurrence. The surge managed only to reduce the level of violence from apocalyptic to agonizing -- and now even those gains seem to be slipping.
Bush's surge was designed to give the Iraqi government the necessary breathing space for Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds to reach vital compromises. President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki showed their gratitude this month by rolling out the red carpet, literally, for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Bush's Middle East policy is designed largely to blunt the influence of Iran, which seeks a dominant role in the region. So it must have been galling to the White House to watch as Ahmadinejad swept into Baghdad in a ceremonial motorcade and toured the city with fanfare. Never one to miss a chance to stick in the needle, Ahmadinejad questioned the motives of those who "visit this country in a stealth manner."
He was referring to the fact that Bush has to fly into Iraq unannounced and can stay for only a few hours. It would be far too dangerous to let citizens know in advance that their liberator was coming to check on their welfare.
Add to that the fact that Monday was the deadliest day in Iraq for US troops in six months. It's been clear for some time that the Mahdi army is waiting patiently while the US does its dirty work, clearing out the most radicalized Sunni elements, so that when Sadr decides to reengage, he can do so with unfettered room to move. It's also clear that the surge and the partial abatement of the extreme waves of violence of last summer can have no hope of long term success, with the only long term result being a further diminution of US military might. However, that is not what has passed into the consciousness of our current discussion, rather, there is general consensus that the surge has worked, and is working.
Truism #2: That US foreign policy is being handled by adults. There is general consensus that the replacement of Cheney/Rumsfeld by Rice/Gates was a nod to a more reasonable and diplomatic US policy in the Middle East and western Asia. The resignation of Fox Fallon yesterday calls that into question. Fallon, a vocal critic of Petraeus, Bush and the folly of the surge, an invasion of Iran, and the prospect of a long-term military presence in Iraq was fired only a year after Bush hand picked him as the commander in the Middle East and head of CentCom. He was generally seen as a strategic thinker who was a balance to the absurd and dangerous policy of insane chickenhwaks like Cheney, Doug Feith, and Paul Wolfowitz. It is now clear that the inept Rice has lost control of the machine of foreign policy and that the politics of crazy are back in control.
As Josh Marshall points out, the forced removal of Fallon should in no way be taken lightly:
Bear in mind too that Fallon was not foisted on the White House. Nor was he a holdover from a previous administration. The administration chose him. And while the political leadership of the Pentagon and the White House can't choose just anyone for that job they have a fair amount of latitude to choose an officer of sufficient rank who is to their liking -- a prerogative this administration has availed itself of as much or more as any in modern American history.
And as Spencer Ackerman points out, the Fallon departure may have huge reverberations:
Gates said in a press conference just now that no one should think the move reflects any substantive change in policy. That sure won’t be how Teheran sees it. The Iranians will consider Fallon’s resignation to indicate that the bombing begins in the next five minutes. If the new Central Command chief is General Stanley McChrystal, who ran special operations in Iraq until recently (read: responses to Iranian activities), that’ll be a pretty solid indicator that Bush is going to make the most of his last months in office. McChrystal just got a different command, but that, of course, was before the military’s most prestigious combatant command just opened up. Teheran will look verrrrry closely at who gets the job.
The success or failure of the surge and the return of the bloodthirsty neocon influence in the administration are linked closely, of course, and Fallon sat in the middle of it. He undoubtedly took the job under the mistaken impression that Bush had seen the error of his arrogance and would listen to reason with regard to Iran and Iraq. Fallon, who once called Petraeus an "ass kissing little chicken shit" for Petraeus' grandstanding tour of DC in support of the surge last March, obviously spoke out against the Cheney wing one too many times, and the Esquire article, in which he questioned the Bush plan in every way sealed his fate. He, like so many others, assumed that Bush has a shred of intelligence and self reflection when it comes to the mess he has created throughout western asia. That was wrong, of course, and like the drunken gambler that he is, Bush is never more dangerous as when he has nothing to lose. A lame duck Bush can do plenty of damage, and it would be a mistake to believe the conventional wisdom right now.
No comments:
Post a Comment